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Archive for the ‘France’ Category

See update below.

Earlier this month, in an angry, even aggressive, response to Iranian president Ahmadinejad’s furious speech at the United Nations Nuclear Non-Proliferation (NPT) review conference in New York, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton rebutted his tirades and stated that,

“Ultimately we will all be judged not for our words but for our actions, and we will all be measured not by how assertively we claim our rights but by how faithfully we uphold our responsibilities [1].”

When reading this, one has to think about President Obama who is a master of great speeches and nice words. Already during his campaign, Senator Obama got overwhelming support when delivering a speech in Berlin, a relief, both intellectually and visionary, after the disastrous years of the Bush administration. It was before he even became the pretty much controversial candidate of the Democratic Party. Then he won the 2008 election and went on to give great speeches in Prague and, most importantly, Cairo, when he reached out hands to the Muslim world and even quoted from the Holy Qur’an several times. He then got the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize for his, well … nice words [2].

Obama also addressed Iran, America’s arch-enemy [3]. In both of his Nowruz messages so far (God forbid that there will be a third one) he quoted from Persian poet Sa’adi’s work,

“The children of Adam are limbs of each other,

Having been created of one essence,”

obviously without any deeper understanding of the circumstances under which Sa’adi’s story had been told, some 750 years ago. I have mentioned that previously [4]. At least, he fortunately seems to believe in such trivialities.

That Obama is not honest became quite clear at the very beginning of the new crisis about Iran’s nuclear program when he publicly revealed the new enrichment site under construction near Qom on the occasion of the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh. Be it because Tehran got to know that the site had been disclosed meanwhile or that Iran, as pretended, rather lived up to its obligations under the NPT; fact is that Iran had informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about the new enrichment site at Fordow the week before Obama’s trumpeting. Whether it was unduly late or on time under the NPT is still a matter of dispute.

The new UN Security Council sanctions against Iran, which seem to be underway, and the Obama administration’s efforts in getting permanent powers as China and Russia on board must be scrutinized very carefully. In particular, whom do they actually serve?

When the Iranians met in Geneva in October last year for the first time an American delegation in order to discuss nuclear issues, Iran’s Ambassador to the IAEA Ali-Asghar Soltaniyeh’s letter to the Agency of June 2, 2009 (days before the presidential election), in which Iran had asked for fuel for the research reactor in Tehran which produces medical isotopes for diagnosis and treatment of cancer patients, was immediately mentioned. Under the NPT to which Iran is a signatory since 1968, the IAEA has to provide the country with the respective uranium which has been enriched to just below 20%. That was when the so-called swap deal, mainly brokered by former IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, emerged: Iran would ship about 1200 kg of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Russia where it is further enriched; and France would deliver the respective fuel rods for the TRR later-on. The Iranian delegation and, as far as we know, even in particular president Ahmadinejad welcomed the deal since the Americans seemed to indirectly acknowledge the country’s right to enrich. And the Western powers could have managed to get, for the time being, most of Iran’s LEU out of the country; a classical win-win solution.

But there was an outcry in the country, in particular of defeated presidential candidate and former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi and speaker of the parliament and former chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, who vehemently opposed the deal. The discussions showed once again that Iran is not a classic dictatorship but has a pluralistic society with sometimes diverging power structures. While Iran kept a possible solution for the deal on the table, the Obama administration seemed to interpret Iran’s expressed need for further negotiations as oriental bargaining in the bazaar. Take it or leave it, was the message.

That Iran was mentioned, together with North Korea, as possible target for an American attack with nuclear weapons according to the Obama Administration’s new Nuclear Posture Review might in fact be compared with Bush’s ‘axis of evil’ first State of the Union address of 2002.

What happened last week can only be regarded as disingenuous. Efforts of Brazil and Turkey to revive the status quo ante were first more or less ridiculed by Clinton who had phoned Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoğlu before he travelled to Tehran only to express her doubt whether Turkey and Brazil could succeed in brokering the deal. When it amazingly happened, she made angrily sure that sanctions will be inevitable anyway. As to what we know, Obama tacitly endorsed both sides.

The crux might in fact be Iran’s immediate announcement, after the deal that it won’t give up enriching uranium even up to 20%. But who could hold it against it after all? One has to state that this time Obama’s obstinacy has led to the situation that half a year of further diplomatic impasse has led to more, much more, LEU in Iran which has now started to enrich even further; new good reasons for the Iranians for being highly distrustful of Western concessions; no fuel rods for the TRR, etc. pp: a diplomatic disaster. Obama could have said, “Pressure works! Iran blinked on the eve of new U.N. sanctions” as Roger Cohen wrote in his op-ed in the New York Times yesterday, but he rather pole axed Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and all of us who are craving for a win-win solution in the end.

As this new Iran crisis shows, this in all likelihood one-term president (as before Jimmy Carter, another Nobel Peace Laureate) obviously wants to be all at the same time, black and white, Muslim-apprehender and non-Muslim, dove and hawk, Gospel preacher and commander-in-chief. That’s the way he came into office. But that’s the reason for his soon departure, too, I suppose.

 

Notes

[1] Ms Clinton may be ‘the barking dog which doesn’t bite.’ She is in fact well-known for her highly aggressive remarks on Iran which she once wanted to ‘obliterate’ (during her own, unsuccessful campaign) and for which she now unavailingly desires ‘crippling’ sanctions to be imposed by the UN Security Council.

[2] His speech in Oslo was different. Obama, the Commander-in-Chief emerged. He criticized both Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. as inadequately appreciating the dangers of the world, and former president George W. Bush as to quick to set aside fundamental American values in pursuit of security. He didn’t have time for the dinner with the King. The Royals were not amused.

[3] This is of course a mutually hostile relationship. Roger Cohen writes in a New York Times op-ed yesterday, quoting former U.S. hostage in Tehran John Limbert, “Americans see Iranians as “devious, mendacious, fanatical, violent and incomprehensible,” while Iranians consider Americans as “bellingerent, sanctimonious, Godless and immortal, materialistic, calculating,” not to mention bullying and exploiting. That’s Ground Zero in the most traumatized relationship on earth and the most tantalizing. Tantalizing because Iran and the United States are unnatural enemies with plenty they might agree on if they ever broke the ice.”

[4] It is a parable on the manners of kings (or tyrants). Sa’adi narrates:

“I was constantly engaged in prayer, at the head of the prophet Yahia’s tomb in the cathedral mosque of Damascus, when one of the Arab kings, notorious for his injustice, happened to arrive on a pilgrimage to it, who offered his supplications and asked for compliance with his need.

“The dervish and the plutocrat are slaves on the floor of the threshold

And those who are the wealthiest are the most needy.”

Then he said to me: “Dervishes being zealous and veracious in their dealings, unite thy mind to mine, for I am apprehensive of a powerful enemy.” I replied: “Have mercy upon thy feeble subject that thou mayest not be injured by a strong foe.”

“With a powerful arm and the strength of the wrist

To break the five fingers of a poor man is sin.

Let him be afraid who spares not the fallen

Because if he falls no one will take hold of his hand.

Whoever sows bad seed and expects good fruit

Has cudgeled his brains from nought and begotten vain imaginations.

Extract the cotton from thy ears and administer justice to thy people

And if thou failest to do so, there is a day of retribution.

The sons of Adam are limbs of each other

Having been created of one essence.

When the calamity of time afflicts one limb

The other limbs cannot remain at rest.

If you have no sympathy for the troubles of others

Thou art not worthy to be called by the name of a man.””

 

Update May 23, 2010. Obama’s speech yesterday, addressing about 1000 cadets of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, is another example of the President’s wishful thinking and delusion. While G.W. Bush’s ‘Mission accomplished’ address on May 1, 2003 aboard USS Abraham Lincoln may be considered symptomatic hubris of a man in tremendous power who had never understood means and meanings of his ‘war on terror’, Obama’s superior intellect should have prevented him from talking about victory in Iraq after a hundred thousand civilians reported death and millions displaced. Has there been democracy installed? More than two months after it’s election the country has not formed a government. According to Obama,

“[T]his is what success looks like: an Iraq that provides no haven to terrorists; a democratic Iraq that is sovereign and stable and self-reliant.”  

Much of his speech was about Afghanistan and a perceived terrorist threat on the American soil by Al Qaeda, with reference to the recent failed New York car bombing attempt, strangely regarded as ‘success’, since “these failed attacks show that pressure on networks like al Qaeda is forcing them to rely on terrorists with less time and space to train.”

“America does not fight for the sake of fighting. We abhor war. As one who has never experienced the field of battle – and I say that with humility, knowing, as General MacArthur said, “the soldier above all others prays for peace” – we fight because we must. We fight to keep our families and communities safe. We fight for the security of our allies and partners, because America believes that we will be safer when our friends are safer; that we will be stronger when the world is more just.” (Emphasis added.)

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See update below.

Today Clotilde Reiss has luckily been allowed to leave Iran. The 24-year-old, as has widely been reported, ‘language teacher’ had been arrested on July 1, 2009 at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport when trying to leave the country after a 5-month stay at Esfahan University as guest assistant teacher. She appeared on August 8 in one of the infamous show trials after post-election unrest in the country and ‘confessed’ that she had attended anti-government demonstrations and had sent a respective report to the French Embassy in Tehran. Since August 16 Reiss was conditionally released from the notorious Evin prison after a bail of 300 million toman (about $300,000) had been posted. She was accommodated at the French Embassy.

In the meantime, her Iranian lawyer Mohammad Ali Mahdavi Sabet has informed the media that there has been a court verdict which is not an acquittal but allows her to leave the country.

According to Sabet, Reiss was sentenced to two terms of five years in prison, but the double sentence was immediately commuted to fines “due to the personal circumstances” of Reiss by “a decision for leniency” of the authorities, Mahdavi Sabet said. “I will go to the court to get her passport. The story is over.”

Clotilde Reiss has definitely been another hostage of the regime in Tehran. When her upcoming departure to France was announced today this was only ten days after a French court had ordered the release of the Iranian engineer Majid Kakavand who was sought by the United States on arms export violations and who had been arrested in France in March 2009. Kakavand has left France in the meantime for Tehran.

Anyway, Clotilde might not be as naïve and innocent as she has been described in the West. It is probably not by chance alone that her father Rémi Reiss is a nuclear engineer. Statements by Iranian news agencies do unfortunately not deserve special credibility but when Reiss ‘confessed’ in her trial that

“My father works for the French Atomic Energy Commission. I did an internship there and for that I wrote a report on Iran’s policy on nuclear energy,”

this was notoriously underreported in western mainstream media. That does not necessarily mean anything, but often things are interconnected. If it was a false testimony, why hasn’t it been disclaimed in the meantime? Clotilde had studied political sciences in Lille, not languages. She has got a master’s degree on a thesis on the educational system in Iran. About 15 kilometers east of Esfahan University, which is known for its very conservative administration and staff, is the country’s uranium conversion facility located.

There is actually little hope that the true circumstances of her shrouded arrest and release will be elucidated after the end of her 11-month nightmare.  I want to wish her good luck anyway.          

 

Update May 18, 2010. As The Telegraph reported yesterday, Pierre Siramy, a former high-ranking member of France’s external intelligence service DGSE, has confirmed that Reiss has been working for the French intelligence service. As its representative’s contact, “she provided reports on domestic politics in the run up to last July’s presidential elections and on a nuclear site under construction next to the central town of Isfahan where she was an assistant university teacher,” said Mr. Siramy. Siramy’s claims were immediately denied by anonymous officials of the DGSE.

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What actually had happened on September 4, 2009 near Kunduz in Afghanistan, and when and how the German Government, lawmakers and the public were informed about the numerous civilian casualties after bombarding the two fuel tanks which had been hijacked by Taliban insurgents is presently matter of a German parliamentarian board of inquiry, or “Parlamentarischer Untersuchungsausschuss”. At a time when the campaign for the Bundestag election later that month was underway, no one in the Grand Coalition was probably too much interested in revealing the possible scandal of Germans ordering the killing of an unprecedented number, at least after World War II, of enemy combatants including an undetermined number of civilians. That might be one reason for the scandalous delay in the clarification of fact.

After eight years of war in Afghanistan, public opinon in Germany is no longer in favor of any further deployment of German forces to the Hindu Kush. WikiLeaks, a whistle-blower service which has recently been heavily threatened by CIA, has leaked a C/NF (“confidential, not for foreign eyes”) CIA “Red Cell” Special Memorandum, dated 11 March 2010, which seems to suggest strategies for manipulating public opinion, in particular that of France and Germany, as regards the war in Afghanistan. The CIA is obviously concerned about the “fall of the Dutch Government over its troop commitment to Afghanistan, [which] demonstrates the fragility of European support for the NATO-led ISAF mission. Some NATO states, notably France and Germany, have counted on public apathy about Afghanistan to increase their contributions to the mission, but indifference might turn into active hostility if spring and summer fighting results in an upsurge in military or Afghan civilian casualties and if a Dutch-style debate spills over into other states contributing troops.”

In the memorandum fears are expressed that, despite widespread public apathy as regards the Afghanistan mission which has allowed French and German leaders to disregard popular opposition and steadily increase their troop contributions to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), forecast casualties in an upcoming bloody summer in Afghanistan could turn passive French and German dislike of their troop presence into active and politically potent hostility.

“The tone of previous debate suggests that a spike in French or German casualties or in Afghan civilian casualties could become a tipping point in converting passive opposition into active calls for immediate withdrawal.

“French and German commitments to NATO are a safeguard against a precipitous departure, but leaders fearing a backlash ahead of spring regional elections might become unwilling to pay a political price for increasing troop levels or extending deployments. If domestic politics forces the Dutch to depart, politicians elsewhere might cite a precedent for ‘listening to the voters.’ French and German leaders have over the past two years taken steps to preempt an upsurge of opposition but their vulnerability may be higher now.

“Political fallout from the German-ordered Kunduz airstrike in September 2009 which killed dozens of Afghan civilians, demonstrated the potential pressure on the German Government when Afghanistan issues come on the public radar. Concern about the potential effects of Afghanistan issues on the state-level election in North Rhine-Westphalia in May 2010 could make Chancellor Merkel – who has shown an unwillingness to extend political capital on Afghanistan – more hesitant about increasing or even sustaining Germany’s ISAF contributions.”

Suggested strategies for manipulating public opinion include a “consistent and iterative strategic communication program across NATO troop contributors that taps into the key concerns of specific Western European audiences could provide a buffer if today’s apathy becomes tomorrow’s opposition to ISAF, giving politicians greater scope to support deployments to Afghanistan.” While French citizens are focused on civilians and refugees, tailored messages highlighting Afghans’ broad support for the mission could underscore its positive impact on civilians. Messages dramatizing the potential adverse consequences of an ISAF defeat for civilians in Afghanistan could leverage French guilt for abandoning them. Germans, who are more worried about the high costs and the general principle of the mission might be manipulated by dramatizing consequences of a NATO defeat as regards a higher exposure to terrorism, narcotics, and refugees “to make the war more salient to skeptics.” The public in both countries may be positively receptive to President Obama’s credibility and pretended ability to stabilize Afghanistan. And finally, Afghan women, having been freed after brutal oppression, may be the ideal messengers in humanizing ISAF’s role in combating the Taliban.

Manipulation at the home front certainly belongs to any war. The special case here is that this more and more Orwellian war on terrorism happens thousands of miles away, in a world which appears for the common Western individual so exotic that it would be hard to understand what is actually going on there.

See also Glenn Greenwald’s article at Salon.com.

 

Last update March 28, 2010.

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A couple of days before the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will again report on Iran’s nuclear program, the French, U.S. American and Russian Ambassadors to the IAEA have informed its new Director General Yukiya Amano in a remarkable letter (since Russia is aboard), dated February 12, about the so far failed swap of most of Iran’s low enriched uranium (LEU) for getting urgently needed fuel rods for their research reactor in Tehran (TRR) which produces medical isotopes. The letter which had been posted on politico.com, describes the views of one party and claims that far-reaching guarantees were offered in particular by the United States. The letter does not take into account that domestic power struggles in Iran may have prevented the deal which has been worked-out by the former DG of the IAEA Mohamed ElBaradei. It does not consider deep distrust of the Iranians who were afraid that, once their LEU had been shipped out of the country, in particular the United States may use delayed delivery of up to 20% enriched uranium in fuel rods as leverage in order to force Iran to give up its enrichment program. It does mention that Ahmadinejad’s “February 7 announcement that Iran will enrich uranium up to 20%, and Iran’s subsequent formal notification to the IAEA, are wholly unjustified, contrary to UN Security Council resolutions, and represent a further step toward a capability to produce highly enriched uranium.”

“If Iran goes forward with this escalation, it would raise new concern about Iran’s nuclear intentions, in light of the fact that Iran cannot produce the needed nuclear fuel in time to ensure the uninterrupted production of medical isotopes by the Tehran Research Reactor.

“We recognize the need in Iran for medical radioisotopes. If Iran does not wish to accept the IAEA offer, we note that these are available on the world market and could be obtained as a responsible, timely and cost effective alternative to the IAEA’s proposal. Iran’s enrichment of its LEU stockpile to higher levels is not only unnecessary, but would serve to further undermine the confidence of the international community in Iran’s actions.”

Usually, in negotiations one should seek a result which both sides can regard a win. The Iranian Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Akbar Soltanieh, had reportedly asked the agency in June 2009 for fuel rods for their TRR since the material bought in the 1990s from Argentina would run out in 2010. The counterproposal of a swap of most Iran’s so far in Natanz produced LEU had an interesting aspect for the Iranians: it would have more or less legitimized its enrichment program despite UN Security Council’s resolutions demanding Iran to immediately stop it. On the other hand, shipping most of Iran’s LEU out of the country would have largely diminished western concerns about the country’s ‘breakout capacity’, i.e., its ability to quickly produce the amount of highly enriched uranium necessary for a nuclear bomb. The here claimed “substantial political assurances that the agreement would be fulfilled”, provided by the U.S., may have been regarded not sufficient in Tehran, though. I am afraid the counterproposal of the western powers was fishy from the beginning. It has never been honest. Former UN weapons inspector in Iraq Scott Ritter writes on truthdig.com:

“While Iranian negotiators spoke of a potential swap formula that could unfold over the course of several months, the U.S. spoke of a swap timetable stretching out several years, making such a swap useless for the purpose it was ostensibly being instituted for—the Iranian nuclear research reactor and the manufacture of medical isotopes.”

Iran has no experience in producing fuel rods for the TRR. Own attempts to enrich LEU up to 20% for that purpose may therefore be useless. It might in fact be regarded an act of defiance. When the three Ambassadors now suggest that Iran shuts down the TRR and buys medical radioisotopes on the world market, the swap deal seems definitely to be dead.

Last update February 17, 2010

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Chess

 

 

Earlier this month Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and his delegation had suggested, in the long-awaited Geneva talks, an unexpected deal with the West regarding shipping much of its so far produced stockpile of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Russia for further enrichment to about 20%. It should then been returned to Iran in order to fuel Tehran’s research reactor for the production of medical isotopes. Many commentators were just surprised about completely new perspectives of international collaboration with the decade-long isolated pariah state. Possible motivations for Tehran’s seemingly constructive turn were quickly analyzed. Severe contamination of LEU, which had been produced in Natanz, with molybdenum had been identified as a major problem for further uranium enrichment at that site. But if Iran actually wants to master the full nuclear fuel cycle, reprocessing LEU in Esfahan’s uranium conversion facility should not be regarded a serious obstacle.

After further talks at the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, Iran has missed in the meantime a deadline, set by the outgoing IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, of responding to a proposal which suggested that most of Iran’s LEU is exported to Russia and France. The issue is delicate, and Ali Ashgar Soltaniyeh, Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, has definitely to get approval in Tehran which has signaled already that the country prefers to simply purchase the needed uranium for the research reactor from Russia. Soltaniyeh has promised to provide the IAEA with a final answer next week.

There are definitely heavy disputes within the complicated ruling hierarchy, in particular when considering the tremendous emphasis the possibly illegitimate President Ahmadinejad has given to Iran’s nuclear program in the past, which has allegedly only peaceful purposes. The proposed UN deal which has been agreed already by the US, France and Russia may there be regarded as lopsided debilitation of Tehran’s position; and a hastily set deadline by ElBaradei might have been a grave diplomatic mistake, indeed. Iranian delegations are usually competent chess players who easily rumble intentions of their western counterparts.

At the same time, IAEA inspectors are right now underway for a visit of the newly disclosed enrichment site near Qom which has been revealed to the public only last month, first in a letter by Iran to the IAEA dated September 21 and a couple of days later during a press conference by President Barack Obama, Prime Minister Gordon Brown and President Nicolas Sarkozy in Pittsburgh at the G20 meeting. It is not clear whether the past few weeks had enabled Iran to remove revealing evidence that the site has already been operational. Some commentators have pitied that the West has not insisted on immediate inspections after the site had been made public.

There is fear that mutual trust and confidence building has come to an end already. Iran’s illegitimate government, in particular its hard-line president, may be in need of keeping the country in its pariah state, sad to say.

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