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Archive for the ‘Turkey’ Category

Kuwait’s newspapers report today of exhilarated Kuwaiti ‘freedom fighters’ and ‘activists’ who had been on board the Mavi Marmara of the Gaza Flotilla. Some of them are notorious Islamists such as MP Dr. Waleed Al-Tabtabaie, who, as an example, had expressed his dismay about four brave females elected last year to the Kuwaiti Parliament by walking out during the oath ceremony if these females would not wear Islamic hijab. I had reported on that incident here on this blog. Al-Tabtabaie was accompanied by 15 like-minded Kuwaitis.

The passenger list indicates a great number of well-known or suspected anti-Semites. The mere fact that these individuals had been on board the flotilla devalues the whole enterprise, of course, which resulted in the killing of at least ten activists by the IDF, including one American-Turkish citizen. Israel and its president Benjamin Netanyahu are under great international pressure anyway.

Kuwaitis have no good reputation when it now comes to supporting Palestinians. After the liberation of Kuwait in 1991 by an international coalition led by the United States (Operation Desert Storm) Kuwait expelled some 350,000 to 400,000 Palestinians, who had made once up to 30% of Kuwait’s population. Even massacres took place. The reason for these cruelties was that Yasser Arafat had aligned his Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) with Iraq’s dictator Saddam Hussein.

 

Last update June 4, 2010.

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President Obama’s letter of April 20 to Brazilian’s President Lula da Silva has been leaked yesterday. Large parts deal with the proposal worked out by former nuclear watchdog Mohamed Elbaradei last October with regard to the fuel swap, Iran’s golden opportunity to get both fuel for its research reactor in Tehran (TRR) and sort of indirect legitimization of its ongoing enrichment efforts. Both sides would enormously benefit from mutual trust building.

The original text of ElBaradei’s proposal after the Geneva talks has not been made public yet, but it is known that it contained the proposition of sending 1,200 kg of Iran’s low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Russia while, after further enrichment, fuel rods or plates would be delivered later by France.

While the Iranian delegation found the implications of El Baradei’s proposal, i.e., legitimization of enrichment, very attractive, domestic power struggles finally led to a counterproposal: the swap had to take place on Iranian soil. That was unacceptable for the U.S. and other western powers since their main objective was to get about 75% of Iran’s stockpile of LEU out of country.

In November last year, in an attempt to overcome the impasse, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) offered Iran to ship 1,200 kg LEU to a third country, specifically Turkey. Obama notes, in his letter to Lula, that

“Iran has never pursued the ‘escrow’ compromise and has provided no credible explanation for its rejection. I believe that this raises real questions about Iran’s nuclear intentions, if Iran is unwilling to accept an offer to demonstrate that its LEU is for peaceful, civilian purposes. I would urge Brazil to impress upon Iran the opportunity presented by this offer to ‘escrow’ its uranium in Turkey while the nuclear fuel is being produced.” (Emphasis added.)

Well, that was exactly what Brazil and Turkey apparently did when they achieved their aim on May 17. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton now claims that the diplomatic breakthrough has been insufficient since Iran would not be willing to cease all enrichment efforts. As mentioned, we don’t know the exact wording of ElBaradei’s proposal. But Obama gives some hints:

“The IAEA’s proposal was crafted to be fair and balanced, and for both sides to gain trust and confidence. For us, Iran’s agreement to transfer 1,200 kg of Iran’s low enriched uranium (LEU) out of the country would build confidence and reduce regional tensions by substantially reducing Iran’s LEU stockpile. I want to underscore that this element is of fundamental importance for the United States. For Iran, it would receive the nuclear fuel requested to ensure continued operation of the TRR to produce needed medical isotopes and, by using its own material, Iran would begin to demonstrate peaceful nuclear intent. Notwithstanding Iran’s continuing defiance of five United Nations Security Council resolutions mandating that it cease its enrichment of uranium, we were prepared to support and facilitate action on a proposal that would provide Iran nuclear fuel using uranium enriched by Iran—a demonstration of our willingness to be creative in pursuing a way to build mutual confidence.”

I doubt whether the Iranian delegation would have even considered the deal if it had contained an element of ceasing uranium enrichment. Thus, at least indirectly, the U.S. would have tolerated Iran’s enrichment efforts, something which is now, after the deal had unexpectedly been brokered by Turkey and Brazil, is denied in order to impose new sanctions.

 

Last update May 28, 2010.

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See update below.

Earlier this month, in an angry, even aggressive, response to Iranian president Ahmadinejad’s furious speech at the United Nations Nuclear Non-Proliferation (NPT) review conference in New York, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton rebutted his tirades and stated that,

“Ultimately we will all be judged not for our words but for our actions, and we will all be measured not by how assertively we claim our rights but by how faithfully we uphold our responsibilities [1].”

When reading this, one has to think about President Obama who is a master of great speeches and nice words. Already during his campaign, Senator Obama got overwhelming support when delivering a speech in Berlin, a relief, both intellectually and visionary, after the disastrous years of the Bush administration. It was before he even became the pretty much controversial candidate of the Democratic Party. Then he won the 2008 election and went on to give great speeches in Prague and, most importantly, Cairo, when he reached out hands to the Muslim world and even quoted from the Holy Qur’an several times. He then got the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize for his, well … nice words [2].

Obama also addressed Iran, America’s arch-enemy [3]. In both of his Nowruz messages so far (God forbid that there will be a third one) he quoted from Persian poet Sa’adi’s work,

“The children of Adam are limbs of each other,

Having been created of one essence,”

obviously without any deeper understanding of the circumstances under which Sa’adi’s story had been told, some 750 years ago. I have mentioned that previously [4]. At least, he fortunately seems to believe in such trivialities.

That Obama is not honest became quite clear at the very beginning of the new crisis about Iran’s nuclear program when he publicly revealed the new enrichment site under construction near Qom on the occasion of the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh. Be it because Tehran got to know that the site had been disclosed meanwhile or that Iran, as pretended, rather lived up to its obligations under the NPT; fact is that Iran had informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about the new enrichment site at Fordow the week before Obama’s trumpeting. Whether it was unduly late or on time under the NPT is still a matter of dispute.

The new UN Security Council sanctions against Iran, which seem to be underway, and the Obama administration’s efforts in getting permanent powers as China and Russia on board must be scrutinized very carefully. In particular, whom do they actually serve?

When the Iranians met in Geneva in October last year for the first time an American delegation in order to discuss nuclear issues, Iran’s Ambassador to the IAEA Ali-Asghar Soltaniyeh’s letter to the Agency of June 2, 2009 (days before the presidential election), in which Iran had asked for fuel for the research reactor in Tehran which produces medical isotopes for diagnosis and treatment of cancer patients, was immediately mentioned. Under the NPT to which Iran is a signatory since 1968, the IAEA has to provide the country with the respective uranium which has been enriched to just below 20%. That was when the so-called swap deal, mainly brokered by former IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, emerged: Iran would ship about 1200 kg of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Russia where it is further enriched; and France would deliver the respective fuel rods for the TRR later-on. The Iranian delegation and, as far as we know, even in particular president Ahmadinejad welcomed the deal since the Americans seemed to indirectly acknowledge the country’s right to enrich. And the Western powers could have managed to get, for the time being, most of Iran’s LEU out of the country; a classical win-win solution.

But there was an outcry in the country, in particular of defeated presidential candidate and former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi and speaker of the parliament and former chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, who vehemently opposed the deal. The discussions showed once again that Iran is not a classic dictatorship but has a pluralistic society with sometimes diverging power structures. While Iran kept a possible solution for the deal on the table, the Obama administration seemed to interpret Iran’s expressed need for further negotiations as oriental bargaining in the bazaar. Take it or leave it, was the message.

That Iran was mentioned, together with North Korea, as possible target for an American attack with nuclear weapons according to the Obama Administration’s new Nuclear Posture Review might in fact be compared with Bush’s ‘axis of evil’ first State of the Union address of 2002.

What happened last week can only be regarded as disingenuous. Efforts of Brazil and Turkey to revive the status quo ante were first more or less ridiculed by Clinton who had phoned Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoğlu before he travelled to Tehran only to express her doubt whether Turkey and Brazil could succeed in brokering the deal. When it amazingly happened, she made angrily sure that sanctions will be inevitable anyway. As to what we know, Obama tacitly endorsed both sides.

The crux might in fact be Iran’s immediate announcement, after the deal that it won’t give up enriching uranium even up to 20%. But who could hold it against it after all? One has to state that this time Obama’s obstinacy has led to the situation that half a year of further diplomatic impasse has led to more, much more, LEU in Iran which has now started to enrich even further; new good reasons for the Iranians for being highly distrustful of Western concessions; no fuel rods for the TRR, etc. pp: a diplomatic disaster. Obama could have said, “Pressure works! Iran blinked on the eve of new U.N. sanctions” as Roger Cohen wrote in his op-ed in the New York Times yesterday, but he rather pole axed Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and all of us who are craving for a win-win solution in the end.

As this new Iran crisis shows, this in all likelihood one-term president (as before Jimmy Carter, another Nobel Peace Laureate) obviously wants to be all at the same time, black and white, Muslim-apprehender and non-Muslim, dove and hawk, Gospel preacher and commander-in-chief. That’s the way he came into office. But that’s the reason for his soon departure, too, I suppose.

 

Notes

[1] Ms Clinton may be ‘the barking dog which doesn’t bite.’ She is in fact well-known for her highly aggressive remarks on Iran which she once wanted to ‘obliterate’ (during her own, unsuccessful campaign) and for which she now unavailingly desires ‘crippling’ sanctions to be imposed by the UN Security Council.

[2] His speech in Oslo was different. Obama, the Commander-in-Chief emerged. He criticized both Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. as inadequately appreciating the dangers of the world, and former president George W. Bush as to quick to set aside fundamental American values in pursuit of security. He didn’t have time for the dinner with the King. The Royals were not amused.

[3] This is of course a mutually hostile relationship. Roger Cohen writes in a New York Times op-ed yesterday, quoting former U.S. hostage in Tehran John Limbert, “Americans see Iranians as “devious, mendacious, fanatical, violent and incomprehensible,” while Iranians consider Americans as “bellingerent, sanctimonious, Godless and immortal, materialistic, calculating,” not to mention bullying and exploiting. That’s Ground Zero in the most traumatized relationship on earth and the most tantalizing. Tantalizing because Iran and the United States are unnatural enemies with plenty they might agree on if they ever broke the ice.”

[4] It is a parable on the manners of kings (or tyrants). Sa’adi narrates:

“I was constantly engaged in prayer, at the head of the prophet Yahia’s tomb in the cathedral mosque of Damascus, when one of the Arab kings, notorious for his injustice, happened to arrive on a pilgrimage to it, who offered his supplications and asked for compliance with his need.

“The dervish and the plutocrat are slaves on the floor of the threshold

And those who are the wealthiest are the most needy.”

Then he said to me: “Dervishes being zealous and veracious in their dealings, unite thy mind to mine, for I am apprehensive of a powerful enemy.” I replied: “Have mercy upon thy feeble subject that thou mayest not be injured by a strong foe.”

“With a powerful arm and the strength of the wrist

To break the five fingers of a poor man is sin.

Let him be afraid who spares not the fallen

Because if he falls no one will take hold of his hand.

Whoever sows bad seed and expects good fruit

Has cudgeled his brains from nought and begotten vain imaginations.

Extract the cotton from thy ears and administer justice to thy people

And if thou failest to do so, there is a day of retribution.

The sons of Adam are limbs of each other

Having been created of one essence.

When the calamity of time afflicts one limb

The other limbs cannot remain at rest.

If you have no sympathy for the troubles of others

Thou art not worthy to be called by the name of a man.””

 

Update May 23, 2010. Obama’s speech yesterday, addressing about 1000 cadets of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, is another example of the President’s wishful thinking and delusion. While G.W. Bush’s ‘Mission accomplished’ address on May 1, 2003 aboard USS Abraham Lincoln may be considered symptomatic hubris of a man in tremendous power who had never understood means and meanings of his ‘war on terror’, Obama’s superior intellect should have prevented him from talking about victory in Iraq after a hundred thousand civilians reported death and millions displaced. Has there been democracy installed? More than two months after it’s election the country has not formed a government. According to Obama,

“[T]his is what success looks like: an Iraq that provides no haven to terrorists; a democratic Iraq that is sovereign and stable and self-reliant.”  

Much of his speech was about Afghanistan and a perceived terrorist threat on the American soil by Al Qaeda, with reference to the recent failed New York car bombing attempt, strangely regarded as ‘success’, since “these failed attacks show that pressure on networks like al Qaeda is forcing them to rely on terrorists with less time and space to train.”

“America does not fight for the sake of fighting. We abhor war. As one who has never experienced the field of battle – and I say that with humility, knowing, as General MacArthur said, “the soldier above all others prays for peace” – we fight because we must. We fight to keep our families and communities safe. We fight for the security of our allies and partners, because America believes that we will be safer when our friends are safer; that we will be stronger when the world is more just.” (Emphasis added.)

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See update below.

The draft proposal of the swap deal with Iran for sending its 3.5% low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Turkey in exchange for 20% enriched uranium below as presented in a press conference in Tehran today.

“Having met in Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran, the undersigned have agreed on the following declaration:

1. We reaffirm our commitment to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and in accordance with the related articles of the NPT, recall the right of all State Parties, including the Islamic Republic of Iran, to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy (as well as nuclear fuel cycle including enrichment activities) for peaceful purposes without discrimination.

2. We express our strong conviction that we have the opportunity now to begin a forward looking process that will create a positive, constructive, non-confrontational atmosphere leading to an era of interaction and cooperation.

3. We believe that the nuclear fuel exchange is instrumental in initiating cooperation in different areas, especially with regard to peaceful nuclear cooperation including nuclear power plant and research reactors construction.

4. Based on this point the nuclear fuel exchange is a starting point to begin cooperation and a positive constructive move forward among nations. Such a move should lead to positive interaction and cooperation in the field of peaceful nuclear activities replacing and avoiding all kinds of confrontation through refraining from measures, actions and rhetorical statements that would jeopardize Iran’s rights and obligations under the NPT.

5. Based on the above, in order to facilitate the nuclear cooperation mentioned above, the Islamic Republic of Iran agrees to deposit 1200 kg LEU in Turkey. While in Turkey this LEU will continue to be the property of Iran. Iran and the IAEA may station observers to monitor the safekeeping of the LEU in Turkey.

6. Iran will notify the IAEA in writing through official channels of its agreement with the above within seven days following the date of this declaration. Upon the positive response of the Vienna Group (US, Russia, France and the IAEA) further details of the exchange will be elaborated through a written agreement and proper arrangement between Iran and the Vienna Group that specifically committed themselves to deliver 120 kg of fuel needed for the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR).

7. When the Vienna Group declares its commitment to this provision, then both parties would commit themselves to the implemention of the agreement mentioned in item 6. Islamic Republic of Iran expressed its readiness to deposit its LEU (1200 kg) within one month. On the basis of the same agreement the Vienna Group should deliver 120 kg fuel required for TRR in no later than one year.

8. In case the provisions of this Declaration are not respected Turkey, upon the request of Iran, will return swiftly and unconditionally Iran’s LEU to Iran.

9. We welcome the decision of the Islamic Republic of Iran to continue as in the past their talks with the 5+1 countries in Turkey on the common concerns based on collective commitments according to the common points of their proposals.

10. Turkey and Brazil appreciated Iran’s commitment to the NPT and its constructive role in pursuing the realization of nuclear rights of its member states. The Islamic Republic of Iran likewise appreciated the constructive efforts of the friendly countries Turkey and Brazil in creating the conducive environment for realization of Iran’s nuclear rights.”

The deal mentions 1200 kg LEU, not 2000 kg as has been demanded recently from the United States given the fact that the original proposal was of October 2009 and Iran has since then constantly produced LEU and may right now possess about 2400 kg.

 

Update May 17, 2010: The White House has responded to the deal today. It is obvious that the U.S. acknowledge the diplomatic efforts of UN Security Council temporary members Brazil and Turkey but remain highly skeptical and even concerned unless the deal has been reviewed by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The White House has also noticed that Iranian officials have emphasized today that the country will continue enriching uranium up to 20% despite the deal. This obviously does make sense only if Iran wants to demand its LEU deposit back from Turkey. It is hoped that the  revival of the already dead swap deal is not being torpedoed by special interest groups.

 

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It has become clear soon after the failed Geneva Talks of October last year that the P5+1 swap proposal  for most of Iran’s low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Russia with the vague hope of receiving fuel rods from France for its research reactor in Tehran somewhere down the road had never been serious. In particular, Iran’s defeated presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi and former chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani had vehemently opposed the untenable, in fact, indecent proposal. While Tehran has constantly been suggesting several further modalities of a possible swap, the apparent position of the Obama administration which desperately sought support for new UN sanctions was, take it or leave it.

When Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who has travelled to Tehran on the occasion of the so-called G15 summit of developing countries, and Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who surprisingly managed to make it to Tehran, yesterday brokered a new swap deal with Iran it shows that all attempts of the Obama Administration to isolate the country und impose new ‘crippling’ UN Security Council sanctions must eventually be in vain.

Iranian news agencies report today that the Iranian government has agreed to a draft proposal whereby Iran will send some 1200 kg of its 3.5 percent enriched uranium over to Turkey in exchange for a total of 120 kg of 20% enriched uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency will officially receive a letter with regards to the swap deal “within a week.” This is good news and it is hoped that the Iranians who have a notoriously bad reputation for last minute turns take it very seriously this time.

Americans will be skeptical. They now seem to insist that 2000 kg rather than the 1200 kg LEU of last October should be swapped, given the fact of Iran’s considerable efforts to further enrich in recent months.  

 

Last update May 17, 2010.

 

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