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Posts Tagged ‘Mehdi Karroubi’

When Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani noted today that he would lose his post as chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a body which appoints and theoretically can even dismiss Iran’s Supreme Leader, to Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani, he cautiously rather chose not to run for election again. He had chaired the Assembly since 2007.

It took one-and-half years after Rafsanjani’s remarkable Friday prayer sermon of July 2009 (see the transcript on Juan Cole’s Informed Comment blog here), when he had aligned himself to the then pretty impressive Green Movement after the disputed presidential election (what de facto deprived him from further Friday Prayers in Tehran), to finally remove him more or less from power, though he is still chairman of Iran’s Expediency Council (since 2002), a body which arbitrates disputes between Iran’s parliament, the majlis, and the Council of Guardians. Leaders of the Green Movement Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, together with their wives, are under strict house arrest right now but their current whereabouts are not known.

See my appraisal of Rafsanjani’s sermon of July 2009 here.

 

Last modified March 8, 2011.

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If there had been any doubt that the regime in Iran would eventually break down all opposition, today’s disturbing news tell a different story. The more or less silenced leaders of the ‘Green Movement’, Messrs Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, may in fact be on the run. Mousavi’s wife, Zarah Rahnavard, may have been arrested. His nephew has been shot dead.

State dependent presstv has zeroed in on those which have been out on the streets on Tasu’a and Ashura protesting against the government and those who haven’t dared on these holiest days in the Iranian calendar. An alleged relationship to the terror organization of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) is a dangerous sign of an attempt to escalate the situation further.

The Islamic theocracy raises its ugly head. The revolutionary guards and the clique around Ali Khamenei have nothing to lose. They have to avoid a civil war. They will brutally crack down any opposition.

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Friday’s IAEA Board of Governors’ resolution, on outgoing Director General (DG) Mohamed ElBaradei’s last working day at the Agency, is not intended to get Iran’s opaque nuclear program off with a slap on the wrist. It is much more serious for the country. The resolution of 25 of 35 member states voting for (and 3 against: Venezuela, Cuba and Malaysia) must be a clear signal to Iran. Nobel laureate ElBaradei, whose efforts in preventing another war in the Middle East while preserving professional integrity cannot be praised any more may actually be highly satisfied with the resolution. He might even acknowledge lack of trust and confidence on either side, but the vote clearly shows that Iran cannot interpret the NPT (with withdrawals of its additional protocols and modified Code 3.1 regulations at will) as it does.

Incoming DG Yukiya Amano will face enormous problems with Iran right in the beginning of his term. The covert construction of the Fordow/Qom site for enriching uranium has been condemned in the resolution as illicit, and any speculation as to whether commencement of construction work has started before or after Iran’s withdrawal of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty’s (NPT) modified Code 3.1 which requires member states to indicate new sites even at the time of planning is no longer regarded important. As Juan Cole sees it, Iran’s opaque nuclear program might seek a “breakout capability” whenever their rulers consider it necessary despite the Supreme Leaders’ claims that an atomic bomb is incompatible with Islam.  

But who is presently ruling the country? There are signs of serious power struggles within the complex oligarchy with both the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s and a due to a legitimacy crisis stricken President Ahmadinejad’s decline in influence. The opposition represented by Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mir Hossein Mousavi (neither would be a trustworthy alternative to the present regime) and Mehdi Karroubi, not to talk about Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, has been silenced in recent weeks. Silenced by terror, in show trials, family threats, and on the streets. Even yesterday’s confiscation of 2003 Nobel Peace laureate Shirin Ebadi’s prize money may be an example.

Right now, the country can only be regarded a military dictatorship, or junta. The Revolutionary Guards, or pasdaran, have already taken control of Iran. Withdrawal from the NPT may only be the next logic step.

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When the Swedish industrialist and inventor of dynamite Alfred Nobel (1833-1896) endowed his award for peace in 1895 he had a person in mind “who shall have done the most of the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.” In contrast to the awards in science, medicine and literature (and, since 1969, economics) which are presented in Stockholm, the peace price and its laureate’s lecture are traditionally presented at the annual Prize Award Ceremony in Oslo, Norway. In 1895, Sweden and Norway were still in union and Sweden was responsible for foreign politics. When formulating his will, Nobel felt that the Peace Prize might be less subject to political corruption if awarded by Norway.

The Norwegian Parliament appoints the Norwegian Nobel Committee which selects each year’s Laureate for the Peace Prize. Nominations are invited from qualified people around the world. Nominations must be submitted to the Committee by February 1. That means that  there was a deadline about 10 days after this year’s Laureate Barack Obama had been sworn in as the 44th President of the United States of America. However, nominations by committee members can be submitted up to the date of the first committee meeting. Most probably, Barack Obama was nominated by a member of the committee. This year’s committee consists of the chairman Thorbjørn Jagland (President of the Norwegian Parliament, member since 2009, b. 1950) and four women, Kaci Kullmann Five (b. 1951), Sissel Marie Rønbeck (b. 1950), Inger-Marie Ytterhorn (b. 1941), and Ågot Valle (member since 2009, b. 1945).

This year, a record of 205 nominations have been submitted to the committee, but names of nominees are generally not revealed to the public. Among individuals whose name appeared as possible nominees was brave Mehdi Karroubi, the defeated opposition candidate in Iran’s disputed June 12 election who debunked the scandal of torture and rape of detained protesters in Iranian prisons. This initiative of activists came definitely too late when considering the strict rules for nominations. His Iranian fellow, lawyer and peace activist Shirin Ebadi made it in 2003. Her Peace Prize is one of the most precious awards ever, since her continuing work for freedom and her selfless legal assistance for political and religious dissidents in Iran has saved innumerable lives so far.

Even Barack Obama himself would probably have more welcomed a decision in favor of Chicago as the organizer of the 2016 Olympics than this grave honor, a burden for his future politics. While the rightists in the US are howling, even ridiculing Obama’s award it is clear that the Norwegian decision is based on unjustified expectations and naïve wish-full thinking. Putting the world’s tremendous problems on his agenda, which have been caused by the irresponsible foreign and domestic politics of Americas previous rulers is not worthy a Nobel Peace Prize, nor is giving, admittedly important, speeches. Credible and responsible diplomacy is a matter of course.

The award arouses the suspicion that, presently, there are no worthy alternatives (despite the record number of 205 nominees this year), accountable individuals or organizations working for peace with measurable results. If true (we don’t know Obama’s competitors though), this would in fact be very bad news in times of two not yet finished wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, apparently unsolvable conflicts in the Middle East, an ongoing crisis in and about Iran, and a global economic slowdown. Will Ben Bernanke be awarded the Economic Prize this year?

I rather believe that the committee in Oslo has not done its work properly. That the Nobel Peace Price should be awarded independent of potential political influence doesn’t mean that a committee of a tiny country in the northwestern corner of Europe may become big in politics.

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Somewhat hidden on Iranian government-funded presstv’s webpage you may find this Monday’s sensation. Ten or 13 killed demonstrators on Tehran’s streets, among them 19-year-old Neda, whose shocking death millions around the world have watched in an extremely graphic video, have possibly not died in vain. Iran’s Guardian Council has to admit today that probes into ballots boxes have proved a massive election fraud. In 50 cities, they contained more votes than people eligible. So, rumors that the 11 million additional ballot papers had been in the boxes before the day of election have had all reason. The remarks made by the Council’s spokesman, Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, that “[s]tatistics provided by the candidates, who claim more than 100% of those eligible have cast their ballot in 80-170 cities are not accurate — the incident has happened in only 50 cities” really won’t matter. He should know that election fraud is independent of magnitude. And who believes authorities in Iran anymore? And who cares?

It is quite amazing that the more than 646 ‘irregularities’ (emphasis by presstv) reported by the three defeated rivals of the incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Messrs Mousavi, Rezai, and Karroubi, were partly acknowledged today. Former president Mohammad Khatami has proposed, in the meantime, an impartial committee to investigate the complaints about the results of the presidential vote.

Although nullification of the June 12 election as urged by the latter might in fact be at hand, power struggles within the system might have moved the Islamic Republic of Iran closer to what everybody fears most, a Pasdaran-controlled police or military dictatorship. Four-hundred-and-fifty-seven people had been detained after Saturday’s riots in a massive crackdown.

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