A Laughing Stock

Posted on November 8, 2012 by Muller

Update (November 10) below.

Expats in Kuwait had been exhorted the other day to stay out of the current opposition protests in the run-up of snap parliamentary elections on December 1. They were even threatened by serious consequences, such as huge fines and maybe even deportation, if joining still illegal demonstrations in the tiny oil-rich, feudal autocracy in the corner of the Persian Gulf. They are well-advised. There has never been freedom of expression in Kuwait and criticizing the Emir is a serious offense.

That applies even for the royals. As Kuwait’s English language tabloid Arab Times, quoting Annahar newspaper, reports today, two unidentified members of the ruling family had been summoned for interrogation by the Public Prosecution for offending tweets against Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah. It seems so that the Emir himself had filed the complaints against the suspects who had gone underground and might even have left the country.

The Emir must be thin-skinned these days. Only a couple of days ago, the Information Ministry had amended some aspects of the penal code in the “Law on Protection of National Unity”, notably on social media, which the Information Ministry had said it wanted to regulate. In an expansion of the previous definition, incitement of strife in “print, visual or audible” form, including social media, is now illegal as is expression of hatred or contempt towards “any groups in the community.”

The Emir is walking a tightrope after his recent decree for changing the electoral law with just two purposes in mind: to increase the likelihood for eventually getting a pro-government national assembly and once and forever end this nuisance of grilling his ministers. Even the promise that the new parliament might revise the electoral amendment is just appeasement, since numerous heterogeneous  factions of what is the opposition in Kuwait (amazingly, both Islamists and all kinds of liberals) have announced already a boycott of the election.

8 November 2012 @ 10:31 am.

Update November 10. As Arab Times discloses today, “Sheikh Abdullah Salem Al-Sabah and Sheikh Nawaf Malek Al-Sabah were arrested for expressing political views on Twitter.

“Sheikh Abdullah’s lawyer Al-Humaidi Al-Subaie said his client was arrested late on Wednesday and was expected to be questioned by the public prosecutor. The two young royals have written tweets sympathetic to the Kuwaiti opposition, which has been organising protests against an amendment to the electoral law seen as designed to produce a pro-government Parliament in a snap Dec 1 general election. Earlier, young royal Sheikh Meshaal Al-Malek Al-Sabah was detained for a few days in July for expressing political views deemed offensive.”

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No Real Choice

Posted on November 7, 2012 by Muller

Americans reelected Barack Obama last night and thus made sure that he has got another chance to work hard on his promises of four years ago. The fallen messiah has to yield now. Of course, there is again hope for change. In his second and final term he might eventually only start earning the merits the Nobel Peace Prize Committee in Oslo had falsely assumed in 2009.

Second and final terms have often freed the minds of previous American presidents possibly enabling them to do what is pertinent in a country which is on one hand so irrational in its military might and aspirations for global leadership in a fast changing world. And its disastrous infrastructure (as hurricane Sandy has shown again), growing gap between the super rich and the poor, the unemployed and not even medically insured; the evangelical fundamentalists in what is called the infamous bible belt; and sort of predator capitalism on the other.

What Obama has achieved in the previous four years was pretty much sobering. Guantanamo hasn’t been closed. The war in Afghanistan  hasn’t ended. George W. Bush’s drone war has been expanded to a number of more countries and may largely be based on an unprecedented, unconstitutional, personal presidential kill list including even American citizens. Likewise, Obama’s grotesque war on whistle-blowers, which have revealed both America’s embarrassing support for cruel dictators in particular the Middle East (which at least has sparked the Arab Awakening since 2011) and blatant war crimes in the illegal war in Iraq (while those with more pleasant news about brave acts such as the killing of Osama bin Laden) endangers freedom of press in an Orwellian manner.

Well, there was no real choice, neither in America nor in the rest of the world. One won’t even want to imagine what would happen with Mitt Romney in the White House. But can we just reboot Hope, Change, Yes he can? Well, there is already something going on in secret negotiations with Iran. And Israel’s Netanyahu won’t ever get a Green Light for bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.

7 November 2012 @ 8:13 am.

Last modified November 7, 2012

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One Man One Vote

Posted on November 5, 2012 by Muller

The current political crisis in Kuwait is aggravated by the Emir’s recent decision to change the electoral law and consequently reduce the number of votes each voter can cast to one. The previous voting system was the so-called single transferable vote in the case of multi-seat constituencies. An elector’s vote is initially allocated to his or her most preferred candidate. When candidates have either been elected or eliminated, any surplus or unused votes are transferred according to the voter’s stated preferences. Since parties are still de facto illegal in Kuwait, this would be one way to minimize wasted votes by transferring votes to other eligible candidates that would otherwise be wasted on sure losers or sure winners.

As David Hearst wrote yesterday in a report by the Guardian on further attempts by security forces in Kuwait to forcefully crack down new protests of opposition groups, reducing the number of votes to one would prevent that the opposition could  ever take control in parliament.

“The source of the ferment in Kuwait has little to do with Islamism. It is an amendment to the electoral law pushed by the emir that would reduce the number of votes each voter cast to one. With multiseat constituencies, this would mean that, as in Jordan, if the opposition candidate got 70% of the vote, the remainder of the vote would be divided up among the other seats for the same constituency. This would pave the way for a neutered parliament in which the opposition could never take control. It is blatantly undemocratic but it is non-negotiable.”

The Emir, who has final says in any state affairs  and appoints his prime minister (who in turn selects the cabinet), apparently wants to put end to the annoying quarrels in a parliament which has very limited legislative power. Election day with the new voting system imposed has been set to December 1. Opposition groups have promised to boycott the charade.

Late but not too late, Kuwaitis seem to have awaken right now becoming more and more aware of the fact that a nice parliament building has little to do with democracy in the country.

5 November 2012 @ 7:34 pm.

Last modified November 5, 2012.

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The Perfect Storm

Posted on October 28, 2012 by Muller

Update October 29 below.

Today politicians in the U.S. seem to be rather concerned about the possible impact of hurricane Sandy on the upcoming election on November 6, not so much about possible causes of natural disasters. Neither President Barack Obama nor his rival Mitt Romney had even discussed climate change and how to fight it in their televised debates.

Both should have. The Midwest and Mid-Atlantic had experienced in June this year the most destructive derecho in North American history after weeks of extremely hot weather. What is now still a North Atlantic hurricane may indeed develop into a Perfect Storm if absorbed, after landfall tomorrow night, by a powerful Nor’easter, something which had actually happened on Halloween 1991. Only 17 months later, a winter hurricane, the Storm of the Century (see picture), hit more than 40% of the United States and eventually even stretched from Canada to Central America. 310 people died. I was in Chicago and got of the last flights out of the States. A similar path of destruction along the American East coast as current hurricane Sandy took hurricane Irene in August last year. In this year’s August hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana at least two times and even affected the GOP National Convention in Tampa, Florida, in which Romney was to be officially nominated presidential candidate. Hurricane Katrina of 2005 which devastated New Orleans is not forgotten.

It is well-established that global warming will rapidly lead to more and stronger storms and other extreme weather events. Soon, we are no longer talking about storms of the century anymore.

28 October 2012 @ 11:50 am

Update October 29, 2012. As has been predicted and feared, the storm has dramatically strengthened and not yet even made landfall. Its sheer size in fact makes it a monster. Click on the picture and see its development and path since it devastated the Caribbean.

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Friendly Leaks

Posted on October 21, 2012 by Muller

Update below.

Helen Cooper and Mark Landler of the New York Times (NYT) want to know that, as result of intense and secret exchanges of American and Iranian officials for almost four years (!), both sides have agreed on one-on-one negotiations about Iran’s nuclear program. That’s what unnamed U.S. administration officials say.

Apart from talks being overdue, the new leaks to NYT’s David Sanger and his team have obviously an agenda (as they previous had).

“It [the agreement] has the potential to help Mr. Obama make the case that he is nearing a diplomatic breakthrough in the decade-long effort by the world’s major powers to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, but it could pose a risk if Iran is seen as using the prospect of the direct talks to buy time,”

as Cooper and Landler write. Likewise unnamed “Iranian officials have insisted that the talks wait until after the presidential election.” Anyway, while, according to the NYT the White House immediately has denied a final agreement, Tehran has not mentioned the “breakthrough” yet.

Cooper and Landler stress again that it was Iran shunning any bilateral talks in the previous years.

“For years, Iran has rejected one-on-one talks with the United States, reflecting what experts say are internal power struggles. A key tug of war is between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani, Iran’s former nuclear negotiator and now the chairman of the Parliament.

Iran, which views its nuclear program as a vital national interest, has also shied away from direct negotiations because the ruling mullahs did not want to appear as if they were sitting down with a country they have long demonized as the Great Satan.”

But for the record. Obama’s overture in the beginning of 2009 had in fact reached Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei when he responded in his largely misreported (in the West) Nowruz speech in Mashhad,

“We do not have any experience with the new US President and Government. We shall see and judge. You change, and we shall change as well. If you do not change, our people became more and more experienced, stronger, and more patient in the past 30 years.”

So, what has Khamenei experienced in the four years of Obama’s first term? Not really condemned assassinations of some of Iran’s nuclear scientists and sabotage of its nuclear facilities (ordered by whatever secret service), a new dimension of cyberwar, and the promised crippling sanctions which are meant to bring the country to its knees (and it probably has). And last but not least permanent threats by Israel to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, something what is only considered inappropriate at the moment because of Mr. Obama’s election campaign.

The real intention for all this is no longer Iran’s nuclear program (if it ever has been. Intelligence communities in both the US and Israel consistently agree for years that Iran has not even made a decision to develop nucear weapons). It is regime change at any cost. So, for any Iranian, another overture by Obama would be irrelevant. If he wins the elction, it will be his last term and he could further tighten the screws on Iran, even assist Israel in a military attack. If Mitt Romney wins, well, it might even come worse. The regime in Tehran has soon to prepare for their own presidential elections which will put it at new risks especially in times of the dire economic situation. This seems not to be the time for breakthroughs after negotiations.

21 October 2012 @ 9:32 am

Update. Either side denied straightaway that one-on-one negotiations between the two adversaries are planned, be it before or after the American presidential election.

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