No Cards

When the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, spoke on April 27 to students of the Carolus Magnus high school in the small town of Marsberg in Northrhine-Westphalia, it made headlines around the world. Merz said, regarding the current war on Iran, that President Donald Trump had no strategy, especially no exit strategy, that Iranians negotiated most skilfully, or rather very skilfully not negotiated, and that a whole nation (the US) was humiliated by Iran and its “so-called” Revolutionary Guards.

Did he utter this intentionally in order to indirectly address Donald Trump? To offer his friendly advice, to help the World Emperor in making wiser decisions?

Certainly not. Most probably he thought that his almost private talk with students (who probably had asked him respective questions) within the hills of his home region, the Sauerland, would get unnoticed and may even strengthen his image as a leader who knows.

If only it hadn’t been rather Captain Obvious-like.

Germans—indeed, even all the Europeans—have to suffer because of this blunder. Insulted and vengeful Trump wants to impose more tariffs on cars. It will hit mostly Germany’s outdated automobile industry which is, stupidly enough, still relying on internal combustion engines. Something Donald Trump prefers anyway.

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Iran’s Jihad – Sacred Defense

Yesterday was TACO-Tuesday. It wasn’t clear why Donald Trump wanted to escort two US-flagged merchant vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz. Were there any special goods on board? Or was the entire enterprise of engaging his military just futile?

Anyway, last night he just declared “Project Freedom” would pause.

“Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed. President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Just after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has claimed that hundreds of commercial ships are lining up to leave the Strait of Hormuz thanks to the United States having erected a “red, white and blue dome” over the corridor.

Not so easy, I suppose. Meanwhile I was wondering what is Iran making out of it?

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No Plan

Does Trump aim for a Tonkin event in the Strait of Hormuz? The fragile ceasefire may actually hold as neither Trump nor Iran are actually interested in an escalation which would prolong the situation in the Gulf indefinitely.

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Ongoing Threats

An angry Vice President J. D. Vance seen leaving the negotiation table after the first Islamabad Summit had failed on April 12, 2026

Iran is not currently planning negotiations with the US.

The opinion piece in the Washington Post of April 8, three days before the negotiations in Islamabad, did not receive the media attention it deserved.

In a series of points where the vision of a military solution to the conflict was presented to a broad international audience, the author, Marc A. Thiessen, writes:

“Fourth, carry out a final barrage of leadership strikes, eliminating the Iranian officials who had been spared for the purpose of negotiations. Iran’s leaders must be made to understand that their lives literally depend on reaching a negotiated settlement to Trump’s liking. If they refuse to do so, they will be killed.”

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The Ayatollahs’ Democracy – Obituary?

The current situation in Iran is dire. Yesterday I wrote,

“A strategically minded “smart” Iran may abandon its entire nuclear program in order to survive as a regime, now completely ruled by the Pasdaran. From the ashes will rise a military dictatorship and police state sans mullahs. So, making things for the populace massively worse.”

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Council may have taken over the Iranian Republic already. The appointed rahbar, or Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public and, despite denial, may actually be incapacitated.

While the situation is much worse than in 2009, after the questioned re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, I want to share the epilogue of Hooman Majd’s book of 2010, The Ayatollahs’ Democracy, which I had recently revisited.

Shia concepts of martyrdom, but more important victimhood, concepts deeply imbedded in the Iranian psyche – even in the psyche of non-Shia Iranians – play a bigger role in the culture of politics than is imagined in the West. We are Shia, Iranians say; our sect has long been a victim of greater Sunni oppression in the Muslim world; our original saints, the blood of the prophet in their veins, were victims of cruel and despotic Caliphs a millennia and a half ago, and we still weep for them, on cue and on time, every year. For centuries we have been the victims of foreign imperialist ambitions, then victims of tyrant Shahs who suppressed any democratic movement that would limit their power. Our latest political model, an Islamic Republic we voted for, has been a victim of foreign plots to destroy it, our independence a thorn in the side of every greater power. We were victims of Saddam, much more so than you Westerners, and yet no one wept for us as he gassed our children and rained bombs down on our cities. We are victims of a Western attitude of superiority that deems nuclear technology to be safe in the West’s hands, but unacceptable in the hands of Shia Iranians, even as European man has wreaked more havoc on the planet than any other species.

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