The Conqueror of the Worlds …

… works out an agreement. He carefully considers pros and cons of possibly irreversible decisions. He knows that he had always succeeded whenever he had raped his adversaries. His deals have always been struck by coercion.

It is reported that U.S. President Donald Trump has got bored of Iran and the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz.

So are most of the people in the world. Bored of Trump’s back and forth and back again. Impatient of the dramatically emerging global economic crisis. There is no face-saving solution either for Trump or Iran.

Iran is not advised to reverse the shut down of the Strait or to give up its highly-enriched uranium save its nuclear program. Or to waive its claim for reparations. It still has the already badly demolished American airbases in the Gulf monarchies in the cross-hairs, the oil infrastructure of the GCC states. A prospect to close also the strait at the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab.

On the other hand, Trump cannot offer any guarantees that he will refrain from further attacks on Iran, since his strongest ally in the region—Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—is a loose cannon. Who will not desist from destroying Lebanon in the same manner in which he annihilated the Gaza Strip.

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The World Emperor …

… has serious business to do. His eldest son’s wedding, everybody should know, he cannot attend.

While I very much wanted to be with my son, Don Jr., and the newest member of the Trump Family, his soon to be wife, Bettina, circumstances pertaining to Government, and my love for the United States of America, do not allow me to do so. I feel it is important for me to remain in Washington, D.C., at the White House during this important period of time. Congratulations to Don and Bettina! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Much is on the agenda on this long weekend, Pentecost and Memorial Day.

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Finding the Right Time

Sure, Trump is itching to strike. There is no other way out of the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz. And deep inside, he knows he has caused the mess. Boots on the ground have been attempted on Easter and it terribly failed. Trump was said to have screamed for hours at his aides and actually kept in a separate room during the operation. So, no ground troops anymore.

The above meme was posted yesterday. It seems that Trump considers pushing this time the Red Button, a physical card carrying constantly updated access codes for launching a nuclear weapon.

And yet, last night he posted on Truth Social,

I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow, in that serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond. This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN! Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

So, he has been asked by leaders of the Gulf monarchies. They probably have to read Trump’s tweets, too, to find out what they asked him for. TACO Tuesday?

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Did Trump Abandon Taiwan?

In his Fox News Interview after his return from China, President Trump said,

“When you look at the odds, China is very, very powerful, big country. That’s a very small island. Think of it, it’s 59 miles away. We’re 9500 miles away. That’s a little bit of a difficult problem. Taiwan was developed because we had presidents that didn’t know what the hell they were doing. They stole our chip industry.”

That means, Trump has understood China’s paramount Leader Xi Jinping’s warning that Beijing and Washington will “have clashes and even conflicts” if the issue is not handled properly, the Thucydides Trap. the risk for war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing superpower. It’s interesting that Xi every now and then mentions it in the context of the US-China relationship.

Russia’s Putin is about to visit Xi next week, just days after Trump has left. They will certainly discuss the Ukraine, Taiwan and Iran.

President Trump won’t interfere when Xi will put more pressure on Taiwan in China’s sphere of influence. Trump has not officially stopped weapons sales to Taiwan but is currently withholding approval of a major arms package

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Empty-handed Trump

Wishful President Donald Trump has said that China pledged not to arm Iran and that Iran should not possess nuclear weapons. None can be found in Chinese Government official announcements. There is no new treaty, no official pledge.

China seeks economic collaboration with Iran and offers diplomatic support rather than provide military support. Xi made that probably very clear in his discussions with Trump.

It is, on the other hand, longstanding Chinese conviction that Iran remains a non-nuclear-weapon state party to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. Thus, Iran has the right to peaceful nuclear technology. It’s very clear that China stays committed to the framework of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as the basis for a new consensus.

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