Cognitive Dissonance Reduction

Posted on June 18, 2026 by Muller

The location was steeped in history. The Treaty of Versailles of June 28, 1919, formally ended the First World War. Negotiated by the Allies as a dictated peace, it compelled the German Reich to acknowledge war guilt (Article 231), make massive territorial cessions (approximately 13% of its national territory), undergo demilitarization, and pay heavy reparations. It paved the way for the rise of Adolf Hitler, his Nazi party, the NSDAP and ultimately WWII.

One hundred and seven years later, when President Donald Trump sighed, yesterday in Versailles signing the Memorandum of Understanding, “This was not easy!”, it was supposed to indicate a victory. The “boss” has spoken, and those at the table offered friendly applause. But everybody who reads the final text of the memorandum gets nothing but the feeling the United States surrendered to Iran.

In psychology, this is called cognitive dissonance reduction. Trump knows that he had made a big mistake out of frustration. He was shouting at Netanyahu, screaming at his military advisors, his plans to nuke Iran were talked out (it might not be true, though).

Continue reading →
Posted in France, Iran, USA | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Trump Signs MoU in Versailles

Posted on June 18, 2026 by Muller

Last night, when in Versailles on invitation by French President Emmanuel Macron, President Donald Trump had signed a copy of the latest version of the Memorandum of Understanding ending the war with Iran. “This was not easy!” he said. The document was also signed by the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian as pictures published by state media showed.

Would it not have been more appropriate if Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (whose father, wife and teenage son, among other family members) had been killed in the decapitation strike led by Trump and Netanyahu on February 28, had signed the agreement?

CNN reminds us that the place of the signature is the same as the ill-fated treaty ending WWI and setting in motion the rise of Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany leading to WWII.

A Memorandum of Understanding is one of the weakest agreements one can think of. Until now, Trump has avoided to involve Congress, let alone the European allies or the United Nations Security Council. Although the former applauded the deal.

According to point 7 of the MoU, the lifting of all sanctions against Iran could be possible in the near future — whether based on UN Security Council or IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, or all unilateral US sanctions. Trump may believe that sanctions are the only way to prevent Iran of developing, “buying” or manufacturing nuclear weapons. Far from that.

Maybe he has not taken into account that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, presently more or less in power in Iran, was designated by the U.S. (via Trump himself) a Foreign Terrorist Organization, citing its extensive history of terrorist plots, hostage-taking, funding foreign terror networks, and killing U.S. citizen. The European Union formally added the IRGC to its terrorist list in February 2026. Canada, the UK, GulfStates Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, all consider th IRGC as a terrorist organization.

Continue reading →
Posted in France, Iran, USA | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Leaked Memorandum of Understanding

Posted on June 17, 2026 by Muller

CNN has received and published the so-called Iran deal to be signed, in an official ceremony, on Friday, 19 June, 2026 in central Switzerland. It is not clear, whether even President Donald Trump, who is still in France tonight, on President Macron’s invitation, to celebrate the 250th Birthday at Versailles.

1 — The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.

2 — The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

3 — The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

4 — Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.

5 — Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.

6 — The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.

Continue reading →
Posted in Iran, USA | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

No Schadenfreude?

Posted on June 16, 2026 by Muller

An ugly German term who made it into English dictionaries. Sometimes, “klammheimlich” is added, clandestine. Today’s G7 meeting of leading economic powers in Evian France saw European leaders again groveling before Donald Trump, the U.S. American President who had secured another victory when electronically signing a Memorandum of Understanding with America’s (and Israel’s) arch enemy, Iran.

Trump has just made sure that, possibly, the Strait of Hormuz will be open again (which was closed by Iran upon the U.S. and Israel’s unprovoked attacks on 28 February 2026), that Iran will never seek, develop, or build an atomic bomb (Iran has always pledged that it was never intended doing so, at least since its former Supreme Leader, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had issued an oral ruling in 2003), and that everything else will be negotiated later.

Trump’s deal in a hurry (his birthday, the 250-yr-anniversary, the football games, … all of this at once!) is a stab in the back for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is still far from achieving his actual war aims (the destruction of Hezbollah once and for all, regime change in Iran, a Greater Israel). Trump’s relationship to the Israeli leadership is completely destroyed. The two million Palestinians in Gaza, in the rubble; nobody will ever care of them anymore. No Reviera in the Middle East.

International mainstream media have so far only raised eyebrows in great apprehension; in comments condemned, criticized or outrightly rejected the agreement while, as far as I have heard, Iranians are quite happy with the perspective. It is said, they claim, We won the War!

Continue reading →
Posted in Iran, USA | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

While Iran is Playing Chess …

Posted on June 15, 2026 by Muller

… it is not even clear whether Donald Trump is playing a game at all. I have seen some clips of yesterday’s Ultimate Fighting Championship, or UFC, event at the White House with a grim-looking President. A vulgar entertainment on his 80th birthday.

I got the impression that he had to compensate his frustration by identifying himself with the “winner” (“right in the face”) after the “deal” he has reached with Iran. A “memorandum of understanding”, MoU, of which we have not seen an official document. Various draft versions are circulated anyway. Middle East Spectator has posted the alleged three phases of the agreement on Telegram.

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 The Iran-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding: Full Details

Phase 1 | Upon announcement of the MoU (effective immediately):

– Upon announcement of the MoU, both sides declare an immediate, complete and permanent end to all hostilities in the region, including Lebanon.

– Upon announcement of the MoU, the United States declares the immediate and complete lifting of the U.S. naval blockade against Iran.

Phase 2 | After Signing of the MoU (30-day period):

– Upon signing the MoU, the United States confirms its commitment to non-interference in Iran’s domestic affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

– Upon signing the MoU, the United States affirms that it will not increase the amount of troops or military assets present in the region, nor impose any new sanctions during the negotiations.

– Upon signing the MoU, Iran reaffirms its commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and confirms that it will never produce, develop, or acquire a nuclear weapon.

– Upon signing the MoU, the United States declares that it will provide Iran with half of its frozen funds, amounting to a value of $12 Billion, to be made available in a non-reversible manner within 30 days, with a commitment to make the remaining half available during the subsequent 60 days.

– Upon signing the MoU, the United States will issue sanctions waivers for Iranian oil, gas, and petrochemical exports, effective immediately, with a commitment to extend these waivers permanently once a final agreement is reached.

– Upon signing the MoU, the U.S. will begin immediate consultations with Israel to present a short term timeframe for a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, including points occupied following the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah agreement.

– Upon signing the MoU, Iran confirms it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial maritime traffic, according to certain specified arrangements determined by Iran, within 30 days.

Phase 3 | Negotiations on a Final Deal (60-day period + possible extension):

– The 60-day negotiating period will begin once all the terms of the MoU have been met in the previous 30 days.

– The 60-day negotiating period can be extended by mutual agreement of both parties.

– During these 60 days, the U.S. will make the remaining $12 Billion of Iran’s frozen assets available.

– During these 60 days, the U.S. will present plans for a reconstruction fund for Iran, amounting to a value of at least $300 Billion, funded partially by Gulf states.

– The U.S. and Iran will begin detailed discussions on a permanent solution to nuclear-related matters, including enrichment, the existing uranium stockpile, and the fate of the nuclear sites.

– The U.S. and Iran will begin detailed discussions regarding the lifting of all economic sanctions on Iran, including primary, secondary, U.S. and UN sanctions, as well as the withdrawal of all UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran.

– A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of a final agreement.

– The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council Resolution.

@Middle_East_Spectator

…

Continue reading →
Posted in Iran, Israel, USA | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment