Does Putin Now Determine U.S. Foreign Policy?

In a remarkable op-ed today in the New York Times, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his American counterpart look like a fool. When Obama needlessly addressed the nation the other day explaining that a military strike on Syria is only postponed, he claimed, responding to unjustness and cruelty in particular when children are gassed to death, “That’s what makes America different.  That’s what makes us exceptional.” He could not be farther from truth.

Putin describes the situation in Syria in a much more realistic way. Right now, it is not or no longer about democracy. It’s not about a cruel dictatorship and rebels fighting for a self-determination, a better life and dignity. It is brutal civil war with 100,000 killed people on both sides and millions on the run. With unclear factions including al-Qaeda. It is right now even still unclear whether Bashar al-Assad had ordered the massacre in Ghouta last month. Putin’s smart maneuver, proposing getting all chemical weapons in Syria under international control and ultimately destroy them, and Obama’s fast turning in tells volumes about his lost leadership. In fact, since Obama has not got a shred of support domestically and abroad, it saved him for the time being from complete defeat; the most isolated American president in history. Obama promised,

“I have, therefore, asked the leaders of Congress to postpone a vote to authorize the use of force while we pursue this diplomatic path.  I’m sending Secretary of State John Kerry to meet his Russian counterpart on Thursday, and I will continue my own discussions with President Putin.  I’ve spoken to the leaders of two of our closest allies, France and the United Kingdom, and we will work together in consultation with Russia and China to put forward a resolution at the U.N. Security Council requiring Assad to give up his chemical weapons, and to ultimately destroy them under international control.  We’ll also give U.N. inspectors the opportunity to report their findings about what happened on August 21st.  And we will continue to rally support from allies from Europe to the Americas — from Asia to the Middle East — who agree on the need for action.” (Emphasis added.)

It wont be possible in a short period of time. In the midst of a civil war. With al-Qaeda keen to get hold of poison gas. But what is more important, why not take this unique moment in time and get international control over chemical weapons in Israel as Noam Chomsky had suggested yesterday? To eventually get the whole Middle East free from WMD.

12 September 2013 @ 3:03 pm.

Last modified September 12, 2013.

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A Government Assessment

You may or may not believe Gareth Porter’s claim that, on 30 August, President Obama has made public his own assessment (“with high confidence”) of what has happened in Damascus on 21 August in order to convince the public that war is inevitable. That the document was called “Government Assessment” with no reference to  National Intelligence Estimate is of course suspect. And even more who its first and second sentences start (“The United States Government assesses with high confidence (sic!)”; and “We further assess”, respectively). It may in fact an illicit attempt to conceal that intelligence assessments were ambiguous. That’s what made most U.S. citizens, Congress, in fact most of us so uncomfortable with Obama’s decision to “punish” the Syrian government.

Porter quotes “[a] former senior intelligence official who asked not to be identified told [news agency] IPS in an e-mail Friday that the language used by the White House ‘means that this is not an intelligence community document’.” The former senior intelligence officer further said, he had “never seen a document about an international crisis at any classification described/slugged as a U.S. government assessment,” and that the administration had “decided on a position and cherry-picked the intelligence to fit it.”

He goes on to quote former director of the Strategic, Proliferation and Military Affairs Office in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Greg Thielman, that he has never seen a government document labeled as “Government Assessment.” “If it’s an intelligence assessment why not label it as such.” Porter quotes former National Intelligence Officer Paul Pillar who argues “that senior intelligence officials might have signed off on the administration paper, but that the White House may have drafted its own paper to ‘avoid attention to analytic differences within the intelligence community’.”

Porter goes on to explain Director of National Intelligence James Clapper’s role in the “Government Assessment” who apparently refused to endorse it “presumably because it was too obviously an exercise in ‘cherry picking’ intelligence to support a decision for war – would explain why the document had to be issued by the White House,” but he and his office refused to communicate further on the issue when asked by Porter. Porter argues that probably largely exaggerated numbers of casualties in the 21 August attack which grossly deviated from numbers in British and French intelligence estimates might have prevented Clapper from signing the assessment. And further claims of conversations intercepted by U.S. intelligence which were never proved to be authentic.

President Obama has lost his credibility some time ago. In his talk to the nation last night he was visibly relieved for gaining time, getting a chance to postpone his war on Syria, after Russia’s proposal to get Syria’s chemical weapons under international control and eventually destroy them. How that is to be accomplished is completely unclear at the moment. Bashar al-Assad has only recently admitted that they even exist. And he still blames rebels and opposition forces to be responsible for the attack.

11 September 2013 @ 8:46 am.

Last modified September 11, 2013.

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Breathing Earth

Carbon_dioxide_on_the_rise

The alarming news in this animated gif (just click on the pictures to the left) is that, “Measurements from ESA’s [European Space Agency] Envisat mission and Japan’s Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite, GOSAT, show that carbon dioxide increased by about 0.5% every year between 2003 and 2013.” More data also have shown that, “After years of stability, methane began increasing by 0.3–0.5% per year from 2007 on.” Earth seems to breathe, but increased levels of carbon dioxide may soon lead to suffocation. Seasonal fluctuations are caused by variations in the photosynthesis of vegetation, and observed “breathing” is largest in northern mid to high latitudes, where forests may “inhale” carbon dioxide in summer and partly “exhale” it during winter.

Methane_levels_increase5 September 2013 @ 12:50 pm.

Last modified September 5, 2013.

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A Not-specified Adjourned Attack

Update below.

The letter President Obama has drafted to the Speaker of the House and the President of the Senate seeking authorization for the use of U.S. military forces in connection with the conflict in Syria has a much broader scope than just a “punitive” strike, as has been noted in several comments.

“Whereas, on August 21, 2013, the Syrian government carried out a chemical weapons attack in the suburbs of Damascus, Syria, killing more than 1,000 innocent Syrians;

Whereas these flagrant actions were in violation of international norms and the laws of war;

Whereas the United States and 188 other countries comprising 98 percent of the world’s population are parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention, which prohibits the development, production, acquisition, stockpiling or use of chemical weapons;

Whereas, in the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act of 2003, Congress found that Syria’s acquisition of weapons of mass destruction threatens the security of the Middle East and the national security interests of the United States;

Whereas the United Nations Security Council, in Resolution 1540 (2004), affirmed that the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons constitutes a threat to international peace and security;

Whereas, the objective of the United States’ use of military force in connection with this authorization should be to deter, disrupt, prevent, and degrade the potential for, future uses of chemical weapons or other weapons of mass destruction;

Whereas, the conflict in Syria will only be resolved through a negotiated political settlement, and Congress calls on all parties to the conflict in Syria to participate urgently and constructively in the Geneva process; and

Whereas, unified action by the legislative and executive branches will send a clear signal of American resolve.

SEC. ___ AUTHORIZATION FOR USE OF UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES

(a) Authorization. — The President is authorized to use the Armed Forces of the United States as he determines to be necessary and appropriate in connection with the use of chemical weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in the conflict in Syria in order to —

(1) prevent or deter the use or proliferation (including the transfer to terrorist groups or other state or non-state actors), within, to or from Syria, of any weapons of mass destruction, including chemical or biological weapons or components of or materials used in such weapons; or

(2) protect the United States and its allies and partners against the threat posed by such weapons.

(b) War Powers Resolution Requirements. —

(1) Specific Statutory Authorization. — Consistent with section 8(a)(1) of the War Powers Resolution, the Congress declares that this section is intended to constitute specific statutory authorization within the meaning of section 5(b) of the War Powers Resolution.

(2) Applicability of other requirements. — Nothing in this joint resolution supersedes any requirement of the War Powers Resolution.”

Congress is rather being asked to authorize a fully-fledged war in the Middle East including Syria’s allies in Lebanon and, of course, Iran. There is no defined endpoint as would have been expected if the attack was punitive. Confusing is another version of how many Syrians had been killed in the 21 August chemical weapons attack according to intelligence. After “at least 350” as mentioned in the British Joint Intelligence Organisation assessment of 29 August; and 1,429 in the 30 August U.S. Government assessment, it is now “more than 1,000 innocent Syrians”, suggesting that a considerable number of not-so-innocent Syrians had been killed as well.

But it’s even worse. In an interview with McClatchy, Mary Ellen O’Connell, a University of Notre Dame law professor knows, “Unfortunately, the president’s draft (authorization) states a violation of international law in every line.” According to O’Connel, resort to military force is not permitted to punish the use of banned weapons, to address arms proliferation, or to response to vague threats to the United States. Instead, national self-defense or actions explicitly authorized by the United Nations’ Security Council are the only two kinds of military action acceptable under international law. And that seems to be highly unlikely.

In the meantime, Secretary of State John Kerry has proclaimed that the administration could go ahead with its war even without backing of Congress.

2 September 2013 @ 1:32 pm.

Update September 3, 2013. AFP reports that French intelligence blames the Assad regime for a “massive” chemical attack last month but mentions another death toll of “at least 281”, which is five times lower than the 1429 claimed by the U.S, although “reports of up to 1,500 killed were consistent with such heavy use of chemical weapons.”

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What Else?

President Obama seeks finally Congress approval for a punitive attack on Syria after the chemical weapon assault in Damascus last week. What else? The commander-in-chief of the only left super power has made more mistakes (“Make no mistake!” has ironically become one of his more familiar quotes) than his predecessor so far. The U.S. government’s intelligence assessment, which has been made public, is not sufficient. A statement such as, “Our high confidence assessment [that the Syrian government had carried out a chemical weapons attack against opposition forces] is the strongest position that the U.S. Intelligence Community can take short of confirmation. We will continue to seek additional information to close gaps in our understanding of what took place,” must be considered rubbish. This must not be the basis for another war in the Middle East with expected thousands of civil casualties. Who will ultimately suffer from “punitive” measures?

It is hoped that Obama will be defeated in Congress as was Prime Minister David Cameron in the British Parliament yesterday. Certainly, lawmakers there have read their own meager intelligence assessment. Again, after the made-up case for the 2003 attack on Iraq, sentences such as “There is some intelligence to suggest regime culpability in this attack. These factors make it highly likely that the Syrian regime was responsible,” are not sufficient.

31 August 2013 @ 7:30 pm.

Last modified August 31, 2013.

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