Finally Another Coup

Well, it was actually long anticipated. Today, Egypt’s Supreme Constitutional Court has waived results of parliamentary elections (28 November 2011 till 11 January 2012), dissolved the Parliament with its Islamist/Muslim Brotherhood majority and approved presidential candidacy of former and last prime minister Ahmed Shafiq, just two days before the second round. Martial law was already (re)imposed yesterday.

Egypt’s young democracy has been smashed to pieces. What comes next? And, cui bono?

Last update June 15, 2012.

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Friendly Leaks Backfire

Relentless in prosecuting Private Bradley Manning who allegedly leaked (amongst others) hundreds of thousands  of revealing US diplomatic cables in 2009, some of them classified and/or embarrassing, and apparently fighting sort of war against Julian Assange and  WikiLeaks, the platform which made them public, Obama is also in the midst of a re-election campaign. Recent stories in major US mainstream media about leaked (by former and current administration officials) information on Obama’s drone war in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia with a personal “kill list” of possible targets and his highly questionable cyber war against Iranian nuclear facilities have widely been interpreted as just being part of his election campaign. A tough Commander-in-Chief acts as he is supposed to. If that was the case it has largely backfired. The self-declared 2008 “beacon of hope” and Nobel peace prize laureate of 2009 in fact acts like his immediate predecessor George W. Bush “on steroids” as Aaron David Miller wrote at Foreign Policy.

Well, that these leaks have widely been regarded as being in Obama’s interest has apparently offended him. US Attorney General Eric Holder has meanwhile appointed two prosecutors to lead a criminal investigation of the leaks.

As usual nowadays, Obama’s outrage may be rather hypocritical, though. When celebrating last month the anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s  assassination Obama’s catchpenny details of the operation have angered many in (mainly hypocritical as well) GOP, and others as well. Obama needs to understand that using leaks is part of any free journalism. What people have learned from WikiLeaks’ diplomatic cables about US American foreign policy may have even sparked revolutions in Arab countries.

The American President seems to be easily offended. The recent leaks about his cyber war and personal killing list leading to targeted drone assassinations with numerous civilian casualties paint probably a much more realistic, very dark, picture of Barack Hussein Obama. Maybe he wasn’t totally sure whether the leaks would actually help him staying in the White House or rather lead to his voting out.

Last modified June 9, 2012.

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Merkel’s Reason of State

When Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel claimed in March 2008 to the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, that the protection of Israel’s right to exist is part of Germany’s raison d’état (“Die[se] historische Verantwortung Deutschlands ist Teil der Staatsräson meines Landes. Das heißt, die Sicherheit Israels ist für mich als deutsche Bundeskanzlerin niemals verhandelbar”)  it wasn’t very clear how far she actually wanted to go when mentioning Iran, again, and its claimed nuclear weapons program as imminent threat for Israel. The context was the Shoah and Germany’s historic shame. Another knee-jerk genuflection, inevitable for any honorable German visiting Germany’s eternal victims. (It is interesting to learn that her controversial remark of Israel’s right to exist being Germany’s reason of state cannot be found on her personal webpage).

When recently visiting Israel, new Federal President Joachim Gauck was somewhat more precise when cautioning Israel against war with Iran.

Well, when in May 2012 Germany sold several Dolphin-class submarines to Israel, it was already speculated that they can and would in fact carry nukes.  Der Spiegel has it today that Israel in fact deploys nuclear weapons on these submarines. Former State Secretary Lothar Rühl and former chief of the planning staff Hans Rühle, have told the magazine that “they had always assumed that Israel would deploy nuclear weapons on the submarines. Rühl had even discussed the issue with the military in Tel Aviv.”

Israel, not a member of the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty, does not comment officially on its nuclear weapons program. The German government has knowledge about it since 1961, though. According to Der Spiegel,

“Merkel had tied the delivery of the sixth submarine to a number of conditions, including a demand that Israel stop its expansionist settlement policy and allow the completion of a sewage treatment plant in the Gaza Strip, which is partially financed with German money. So far, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has met none of the terms.”

Last modified June 7, 2012.

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Stuxnet – Skynet

Not yet. The virus has damaged so far mainly uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz  in Iran. Maybe it has delayed the Bushehr nuclear plant going online. No widespread radioactive contamination yet, no airplane crashes. No erroneous firing of missiles, or just another war in the Middle East. So far.

President Obama, who is in the midst of a re-election campaign, apparently is in need for good news. So, it was him who had ordered cyber attacks on Iran already in 2009. Despite his elaborated, well, hypocritical overtures in Nowruz messages to the Iranian people in 2009 and 2010. Does he know that he might just have opened Pandora’s box? Does he consider the consequences of expected reverse engineering?

As Jason Ditz at AntiWar puts it, “the enormous damage such viruses have caused when they inevitably move beyond the target and start attacking computers worldwide suggest it isn’t exactly a panacea … .” A fiasco so far.

Last modified June 2, 2012.

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A Smoking Gun?

Two demolished smaller buildings at the suspect site and huge amounts of earth which had apparently been (re)moved in the vicinity certainly won’t contribute to urgently desired confidence building that Iran is not doing illicit experiments at the Parchin military complex some 30 km east of Tehran. While an April 9 satellite picture apparently showing water running from the building has led to humorous speculations by some over possible spring cleaning (rather than raised eyebrows) the new image of May 25, just after IAEA’s Yukiya Amano had returned to Vienna after discussions in Tehran about IAEA inspectors being finally allowed to visit Parchin need in fact explanation by Iran.

Last modified June 1, 2012.

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