Just Before an Israeli Attack

Update below.

Yukiya Amano, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has written another dangerous report on Iran’s  nuclear program. Again, the important news is that there is nothing new. His language becomes shrill, though. Non-diversion of “declared” nuclear material at the “declared” nuclear facilities and “locations outside facilities where nuclear material is customarily used” is verified as before. But he seems to express doubt that Iran declares everything it is obliged to declare under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. The Fordow site near Qom has seen a doubling in (mainly not yet fed or spinning) centrifuges since his last report on Iran on May 25,  now they approximate 3000. But this time Amano also points, with increasing frustration and dismay, at the Parchin military site which had been mentioned in his November 2011 report as a site where Iran had possibly conducted illicit nuclear experiments with high explosives almost ten years ago and  which IAEA inspectors have not got permission by Iranian authorities, despite numerous requests, to visit yet. As seen on recent satellite images this site has been the subject of dramatic (de-)construction work since then. Amano stresses that, in stark contrast, nothing had changed in several years after the site (Parchin, but apparently different buildings of the huge complex) had been visited by the IAEA last time in 2005.

As an independently and cautiously acting nuclear watchdog, Amano has been a flop so far. Just a compliant US lackey. A diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks has actually proved that some time ago. Whether Israel is really preparing for an attack before the US American election in November is still not certain. Dogs which bark, don’t bite. As a matter of fact Iran has been threatened with war at this time of the year for many years.

The best solution would be if Iran could finally grant access to the Parchin site and either prove nothing had happened at and in the suspect building or declare that illicit experiments there had been stopped after 2003.

An excellent rebuttal of Amano’s latest report can be found here.

August 31, 2012 @ 08:15

Last modified August 31, 2012.

Update. Once again, Moon of Alamaba discovered a significant detail in the two Amano reports on Iran, of May 25 and yesterday. One has to carefully read and calculate to understand that Iran has in fact reduced the amount of up to 20% enriched uranium-235 in the gaseous form UF6 (which can be further enriched to weapon-grade, 90% enriched, uranium)  from 101 kg (in the May 25 report) to 91.4 kg (in the report yesterday). Apparently Iran is now producing urgently needed (for medical purposes) fuel plates of UO2 for the Tehran Research Reactor which cannot be used for further enrichment, a confidence-building measure, so to say. It proves Amano’s dishonesty that he does not mention, let alone acknowledge, simple calculations but rather conceals them in numerous paragraphs and figures in the report.

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