Does Trump aim for a Tonkin event in the Strait of Hormuz? The fragile ceasefire may actually hold as neither Trump nor Iran are actually interested in an escalation which would prolong the situation in the Gulf indefinitely.

Trump had announced to “guide”, not escort, locked-up vessels out of the Persian Gulf in what he calls “Project Freedom”. With so far little effect. As seen in the above post, automatic identification system (transponder) ship tracks disappear. Maybe that was Trump’s advice to avoid being targeted by Iranian speedboats, drones and missiles. It just causes more confusion and chaos, I suppose.

Centcom commander Brad Cooper speaks of helicopter attacks on six small Iranian boats, which Iran has denied. A fire at Fujairah’s port was probably caused by an Iranian drone attack. The UAE just report a new wave of Iranian attacks.

Indeed, Trump is in a difficult position. To declare victory and just leave is not a possibility anymore, at least as long hundreds of vessels are still locked-up in the Gulf. As Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi calls “the”Project Freedom” a deadlock.

05 May 2026 @ 17:32 UTC+2.

Last modified May 05, 2026.