Leni Riefenstahl’s Nazi propaganda film of 1935 comes to my mind when reading President Donald Trump’s suggested reading of a propaganda piece by James Jay Carafano on 19fortyfive: Donald Trump Won the Iran War. Carafano is a Senior Counsellor to the President and associated with The Heritage Foundation, notorious for Project 2025.

Whatever went wrong in Trump’s Iran war, Carafano spins the legend that everything was planned.

“Iran War Turns into Trump Middle East Triumph. We are about to see the biggest reshaping of the Middle East since Moses led the Jews out of Egypt.”

Honestly, that’s how the piece start.

Both Maximalists (“the wanted regime change”) and Minimalists (“Nothing will be achieved; Trump has dragged the U.S. just in another endless war”) were wrong. Trump’s “I did it my way” will change the Middle East forever – but “in a good way.”

What narcissists like Trump usually do when the results of their actions turn out unfavorably—and I have mentioned this here before—is to claim that it was planned that way from the start: reduce cognitive dissonance. In Carafano, he has now found someone who decisively fosters this mental strategy.

Even Trump’s waffling (isn’t that term negatively connoted?) becomes a strategy. Read this about “Procrastinators”:

“They are impatient and confused by what they see as Trump’s waffling, vacillating between negotiating and punishing the regime, overlooking the deep conviction behind his strategy, a sincere humanitarian streak which abhors needless loss of life—ours and theirs. Since he has largely accomplished our war aims, Trump can take a more measured approach to get to the end-state he wants without unnecessary loss of life and needless destruction.” 

“The victor gets to define victory.”

Carafano continues,

A good fight has a “theory of victory,” a logical, feasible, suitable, and acceptable means to justify calling a win in war. That guidepost is the best measure of success.

For Trump, a win is to squash Iran’s capacity to destabilize the region, creating space for regional collective security, reconstruction, and economic resilience, providing a long-term deterrent against a resurgent regime. From the Abraham Accords to the work of the Board of Peace, and major economic initiatives like IMEC and Tripp, the expectation is that the real measure of Iranian defeat is if these initiatives flourish. That’s the theory of victory.

The real test of “is Trump winning” is if there are signs that the long-term peace structure the president is seeking to replace the overshadowing threat of Iran is emerging. Everywhere you look in the region—the answer is yes. (Emphasis added.)

Well, my answer is a decisive “No!” And I am by no means alone. Even the Gulf monarchies have lost, I’m afraid, any confidence in Trump.

What Carafano thinks of Gaza (“[Trump’s Peace] Board also announced a pilot reconstruction project in Gaza to begin in November), Lebanon, Syria – it’s whishful thinking.

“The spin doctors can spin whatever the damn well please, but the historians are going to write that Trump is the most consequential force in reshaping the Middle East in modern memory.”

There will be historians but they will come to different conclusions. As those who consider Leni Riefenstahl’s Triumph of the Will as both brilliantly orchestrated but deeply dangerous. Just propaganda, really.

7 August 2026 @ 10:00 UTC+2.

Last modified August 7, 2026.